New research shows that international enrolments in U.S. master’s programmes are expected to decline by roughly 15% in the 2025/26 academic year, reversing several years of growth that had sustained graduate programmes at colleges and universities across the country. This drop — equivalent to about 64,000 fewer international master’s students — reflects shifting global demand and growing concerns among prospective students about the U.S. study environment.
Visa Uncertainty and Post-Study Work Prospects Drive Declines
Key factors behind the projected fall include heightened uncertainty around U.S. immigration policies, particularly those affecting visa processing, future work authorisations, and transitions into employment after graduation. Many international applicants now see less clarity and stability in pathways from study to work, making other destinations relatively more attractive.
The research points to deeper concerns that go beyond simple enrolment numbers:
-
Universities reported that nearly half expect international graduate applications to drop further, reflecting broader hesitation in overseas markets.
-
The decline disproportionately affects STEM-oriented master’s programmes, where international students traditionally made up a large share, particularly in fields like software engineering and computer science.
Long-Term Impacts on U.S. Higher Education
The forecasted enrolment downturn could have ripple effects beyond individual campuses:
-
Financial pressures as graduate tuition revenue falls for programmes that once relied heavily on international intake.
-
Innovation challenges in research and development areas where international graduate students have been prominent contributors.
-
Academic departments may need to adjust capacity or curriculum priorities if participation in key fields continues to wane.
While undergraduate international student numbers have shown more resilience in recent academic years, the sharper drop at the master’s level signals particular sensitivities among postgraduate applicants to immigration and post-study work conditions.
What This Means for Prospective Students
If you are considering a master’s in the U.S. in the coming years:
-
Start early: Begin the application and visa process sooner rather than later to navigate evolving requirements.
-
Prepare for backup options: With some students redirecting to alternative destinations (Canada, Europe, Australia, etc.), having a Plan B can safeguard your study goals.
-
Focus on eligibility: Strong documentation, competitive academic profiles, and clear post-study intentions can still strengthen your case.
At RoutePal, we monitor global trends in international education and offer tailored support — from admissions strategy to visa preparation and post-arrival planning — helping you make confident study abroad decisions despite changing landscapes.