The British government is intensifying efforts to tighten visa restrictions for nationals of Nigeria, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. According to multiple Whitehall sources, this decision is driven by internal analyses indicating that applicants from these countries are statistically more likely to overstay their visas and later seek asylum.
The UK Home Office, working in conjunction with the National Crime Agency (NCA), is developing data-driven models to help immigration caseworkers flag high-risk applicants—particularly those applying for Skilled Worker (Tier 2) and Student (Tier 4) visas—who may exploit the visa system to later transition into the asylum process.
This profiling strategy has raised serious concerns among immigration advocates and civil rights experts, who warn about its ethical implications and potential misuse. Critics argue that such a broad-brush approach could encourage discriminatory practices and diminish fairness in the visa process.
Recent figures reveal a growing trend: in 2023 alone, nearly 10,000 asylum seekers had originally entered the UK through student or work visas. Many of them were later accommodated in state-funded facilities, including hotels.
Government data shows that Nigerian nationals filed 2,841 asylum claims in 2024, up 94% from the previous year. Pakistanis recorded a dramatic 79% increase, with 10,542 applications, while Sri Lankans also represented a significant portion of claims.
In response, the Home Office is reportedly considering stricter checks on visa applicants’ financial records—such as bank statements—during the screening process. Officials are also exploring predictive tools that could identify potential asylum claimants before entry into the UK.
While the UK government maintains broad authority over visa issuance, legal experts suggest that these new measures could face future legal scrutiny if found to disproportionately target certain nationalities.