New data reveals that UK higher education institutions have recorded an 8% year-on-year increase in the number of Confirmation of Acceptance for Studies (CAS) letters issued for the 2025 September intake cycle. The trend signals that international student recruitment in the UK is beginning to bounce back after a slower year.
🎓 Key Insights from the Data
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The increase reflects overall growth in student acceptances and deposit payments, which rose by more than 18% in the same cohort.
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The regional breakdown shows especially strong growth for West Africa, where CAS issuances jumped by around 70% year-on-year. Other regions such as North America (+11.8 %) and East Africa (+7.7 %) also saw positive gains.
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In contrast, some markets continue to decline: the Middle East saw a drop of about 30%, Southeast Asia around 11%, and East Asia roughly 7.6%.
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Universities are issuing CAS letters earlier than in previous years—nearly half of the CAS issued for the 2025 cycle were issued before August—reflecting increased processing efficiency and possibly stricter intake planning.
🛠 What’s Driving the Uptick?
There are a few factors contributing to this resurgence:
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After a slower cycle in 2024, many UK universities appear to be actively boosting recruitment efforts, seeking to fill seats and restore international student volumes.
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The timing of CAS issuance has shifted earlier, indicating that institutions are improving workflow and managing intake faster, likely in response to tighter regulatory scrutiny and compliance requirements.
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Some global competitors are tightening student-visa rules or increasing costs, which may make the UK comparatively more attractive at the moment.
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The very strong growth from West Africa suggests that demand from this region is rising rapidly—potentially driven by increased English-language offerings, better scholarship options, or broader outreach by UK institutions.
📌 What This Means for Nigerian and African Students
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For students in Nigeria and across Africa, the spike in CAS for West Africa indicates a clear opportunity: UK universities are seeing strong interest and may be looking to maintain momentum into 2026.
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That said, the overall context remains competitive and regulated—universities are exercising stricter compliance checks, so applicants must ensure their documentation and readiness are robust. The earlier the application is prepared, the better.
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Agents and students should note the shift toward earlier processing—delaying an application could increase risk of missing early CAS issuance and possibly slower processing windows.
🔍 Things to Keep an Eye On
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How many of these CAS converted into actual visa issuances—an increase in CAS does not automatically guarantee higher enrolments if visa rejections or deferrals rise.
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Whether this growth is sustained into the January 2026 intake and beyond, or if it is a temporary rebound after a slack year.
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How universities manage compliance and quality control, especially since the UK Home Office has been applying measures to monitor institutions’ international student programmes. The data suggest universities are issuing CAS earlier in part to reduce risk of late arrivals or non-compliant enrolments.
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How the global student-mobility landscape shifts—if competing destinations loosen or tighten policies, UK universities may either benefit or face new headwinds.
✅ Final Thoughts
The 8% rise in CAS issuances is a positive sign for UK universities and for students considering the UK as a destination. For applicants, however, the message is clear: act early, ensure your documentation is complete, and choose institutions that are proactive in processing. The window of opportunity looks good—but competitive and regulated.
If you’re considering studying in the UK and want support with your CAS-application strategy, feel free to reach out and we can help you navigate the process.